The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.3 percent in September to 110.4 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in August, and a 0.2 percent increase in July, it was announced on October 21.
Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board: "The LEI remains on a general upward trend, but it is growing at its slowest pace since the middle of 2009. There isn't any indication of a relapse into another downturn through the end of the year."
Says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: "More than a year after the recession officially ended, the economy is slow and has no forward momentum. The LEI suggests little change in economic conditions through the holidays or the early months of 2011."
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. was unchanged in September, remaining at 101.4 (2004 = 100), following no change in August and a 0.1 percent increase in July. The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index (LAG) increased 0.4 percent in September to 108.4 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in August, and a 0.4 percent increase in July.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.
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The 10 components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. include: |
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For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators, visit www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm
