Airlines in Asia and the Pacific will acquire some 8,000 new passenger and cargo aircraft over the next 20 years, according to European aircraft manufacturer Airbus. Valued at US$1.2 trillion, the requirement represents one third of predicted global deliveries between now and 2028, with the region driving demand for larger aircraft types.
The manufacturer's latest forecast for the region was presented today at the Singapore Airshow by John Leahy, Airbus chief operating officer for customers.
In the passenger market Airbus predicts that traffic in the region will grow at an average annual rate of 5.9 percent, while cargo traffic will increase by 6.3 percent per year. This compares with a global average of 4.7 percent for passenger traffic and 5.2 percent for air freight. As a result of this growth and continuous fleet replacement, the region is expected to take delivery of some 880 very large aircraft, 2,570 twin aisle widebodies and 4,560 single aisle aircraft.
The high proportion of larger aircraft types reflects the concentration of populations around main urban centers in the region, generating high density traffic on key intra-regional routes, as well as to capacity constrained international destinations in Europe and North America. Meanwhile, demand for single aisle aircraft in the region is expected to accelerate in the coming years, driven by the growth of low cost carriers and opening of new routes between secondary destinations, especially in China, India and South East Asia.
In the cargo sector, the region will continue to dominate the global air freight market, with the dedicated freighter fleet operated by Asia-Pacific airlines growing five times to 1,500 aircraft. While many of these will be converted from passenger models, Airbus predicts that around 340 new production freighters will be delivered to the region over the 20 year period. These will be predominantly widebody aircraft and will represent 40 percent of expected global demand for new production freighters.
Presenting the details, John Leahy said that within 20 years the region would overtake the U.S. and Europe as the world's largest air transport market, with Asia-Pacific airlines carrying over 30 percent of global passenger traffic and around 40 percent of all air freight.
"To meet this demand larger aircraft will be needed to ease congestion and do more with less," he said. "This will see airlines from the region account for over 40 percent of twin aisle deliveries and more than 50 percent of the demand for very large aircraft, such as the A380. With a modern, eco-efficient and comprehensive product line, including the only all-new aircraft in the very large segment, Airbus will be especially well placed to meet the needs of airlines in this region."
The Asia-Pacific region is a core market for Airbus accounting for a quarter of all orders recorded by the company to date. Today there are some 1,430 Airbus aircraft in service with 66 operators across the region, with another 1,120 on order with customers for future delivery. This represents 32 percent of the company's total backlog, reflecting the importance of the region as the fastest growing market for new civil aircraft
Airbus' forecast for the Asia-Pacific region is derived from the company's Global Market Forecast, which foresees total demand for almost 25,000 new passenger and freighter aircraft valued at US$3.1 trillion between 2009 and 2028. This includes foresees total demand for 1,700 very large aircraft, 6,250 twin aisle widebodies and almost 17,000 single aisle aircraft.
The Airbus product line comprises the best-selling A320 Family in the single aisle market, the popular A330/A340 and all-new A350 XWB in the twin aisle category and the flagship A380 in the very large aircraft segment. In the freight market Airbus currently offers the new mid-size A330-200F, set to enter service later this year.
