Shell secured the top spot as the global market share leader, supplying 13 percent of all finished lubricants in 2007, according to data from a soon-to-be-released study by analysts at Kline & Company, a worldwide consulting and research firm.
Volumetric data from Competitive Intelligence for the Global Lubricants Industry, 2007-2017 shows Shell edging out its largest competitor, ExxonMobil, which accounted for an 11 percent market share in 2007. BP, Chevron, and PetroChina round out the top five lubricant marketers.
Kline's report pegs the global market for finished lubricants at 39.3 million metric tons in 2007, up 1.8 percent from 2006.
"It's a mature market when you look at it globally, but the real opportunities are at the regional and country level," says Geeta Agashe, vice president of Kline's Energy research practice. "Volume-wise, Asia is going to be the growth engine of the future, and China and India in particular, with demand declining in Western Europe and North America being essentially flat."
Together, China and India account for 17 percent of global lubricant consumption, according to Kline's report. Markets in China, the second largest consumer of lubricants, and India, the fifth largest, are growing at rates of at least 6 percent annually, far exceeding the world average.
"From a product segment standpoint, the real story is in the anticipated growth of synthetic and semi-synthetic categories," says Agashe. "North America will enjoy significant growth opportunities as end users continue to shift from conventional products to synthetics to achieve extended drain intervals, longer equipment life, and improved fuel economy."
Other opportunities for lubricant suppliers include the development of "green" lubricants to address the environmental and legislative measures that will continue to affect global vehicle and equipment manufacturers.
Competition across the entire lubricant supply chain will remain intense as the mega-majors try to differentiate themselves through supply-chain initiatives, branding, marketing, and product portfolio analysis. Acquisitions, divestitures, alliances, and shut-downs are likely to continue in 2008, according to Agashe. Lubes marketers can also expect continued competition from nationalized and independent oil companies like LUKOIL, Petronas, Petrobras, and Indian Oil as these suppliers look to grow their domestic market shares and expand outside their borders.
Competitive Intelligence for the Global Lubricants Industry, 2007-2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of select national markets for commercial automotive, consumer automotive, and industrial oils and fluids. The study includes a complete year in review for the industry, as well as supplier and country profiles and 10-year market forecasts.
