Economic activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector expanded in April for the ninth consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 12th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the Institute for Supply Management's latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business.
The report was issued May 3 by Norbert J. Ore, CPSM, C.P.M., chair of the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.
"The manufacturing sector grew for the ninth consecutive month during April," said Ore. "The rate of growth as indicated by the PMI is the fastest since June 2004 when the index hit 60.5 percent. Manufacturers continue to see extraordinary strength in new orders, as the New Orders Index has averaged 61.6 percent for the past 10 months. The signs for employment in the sector continue to improve as the Employment Index registered its fifth consecutive month of growth. Overall, the recovery in manufacturing continues quite strong, and the signs are positive for continued growth."
Seventeen of the 18 manufacturing industries are reporting growth in April, in the following order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Wood Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Primary Metals; Furniture & Related Products; Chemical Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Paper Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. No industries are reporting contraction in April.
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MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE APRIL 2010 |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Index |
Series Index April |
Series Index March |
Percentage Point Change |
Direction |
Rate of Change |
Trend* (Months) |
| PMI | 60.4 | 59.6 | +0.8 | Growing | Faster | 9 |
| New Orders | 65.7 | 61.5 | +4.2 | Growing | Faster | 10 |
| Production | 66.9 | 61.1 | +5.8 | Growing | Faster | 11 |
| Employment | 58.5 | 55.1 | +3.4 | Growing | Faster | 5 |
| Supplier Deliveries | 61.3 | 64.9 | -3.6 | Slowing | Slower | 11 |
| Inventories | 49.4 | 55.3 | -5.9 | Contracting | From Growing | 1 |
| Customers' Inventories | 33.0 | 39.0 | -6.0 | Too Low | Faster | 13 |
| Prices | 78.0 | 75.0 | +3.0 | Increasing | Faster | 10 |
| Backlog of Orders | 57.5 | 58.0 | -0.5 | Growing | Slower | 4 |
| Exports | 61.0 | 61.5 | -0.5 | Growing | Slower | 10 |
| Imports | 58.0 | 57.0 | +1.0 | Growing | Faster | 8 |
| OVERALL ECONOMY | Growing | Faster | 12 | |||
| Manufacturing Sector | Growing | Faster | 9 | |||
*Number of months moving in current direction.
Aluminum (10); Aluminum Products; Brass Products; Caustic Soda (2); Copper (2); Copper Products (2); Corrugated Containers (2); Ferro Alloys; Plastics (4); Plastic Resins (4); Polyethylene (3); Polypropylene (5); Polypropylene Resins; Pulp; Sodium Hydroxide; Stainless Steel; Stainless Steel Products; Steel (10); Steel Products (4); and Sulfuric Acid (2).
Natural Gas is the only commodity reported down in price.
No commodities are reported in short supply.
Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.
Manufacturing continued to grow in April with the rate of growth accelerating as the PMI registered 60.4 percent, an increase of 0.8 percentage point when compared to March's reading of 59.6 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.
A PMI in excess of 42 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the PMI indicates growth for the 12th consecutive month in the overall economy, as well as expansion in the manufacturing sector for the ninth consecutive month. Ore stated, "The past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the average PMI for January through April (58.7 percent) corresponds to a 5.6 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP). In addition, if the PMI for April is annualized, it corresponds to a 6.2 percent increase in real GDP annually."
| Month | PMI | Month | PMI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2010 | 60.4 | Oct 2009 | 55.2 | |
| Mar 2010 | 59.6 | Sep 2009 | 52.4 | |
| Feb 2010 | 56.5 | Aug 2009 | 52.8 | |
| Jan 2010 | 58.4 | Jul 2009 | 49.1 | |
| Dec 2009 | 54.9 | Jun 2009 | 45.3 | |
| Nov 2009 | 53.7 | May 2009 | 43.2 | |
|
Average for 12 months – 53.5 High – 60.4 Low – 43.2 |
||||
ISM's New Orders Index registered 65.7 percent in April, 4.2 percentage points higher than the 61.5 percent registered in March. This is the 10th consecutive month of growth in the New Orders Index. A New Orders Index above 50.2 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau's series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).
The 17 industries reporting growth in new orders in April — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Paper Products; Machinery; Furniture & Related Products; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Printing & Related Support Activities; Computer & Electronic Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. There were no industries reporting a decrease in new orders in April.
|
New Orders |
% Better |
% Same |
% Worse |
Net |
Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2010 | 52 | 40 | 8 | +44 | 65.7 |
| Mar 2010 | 41 | 48 | 11 | +30 | 61.5 |
| Feb 2010 | 36 | 49 | 15 | +21 | 59.5 |
| Jan 2010 | 41 | 43 | 16 | +25 | 65.9 |
ISM's Production Index registered 66.9 percent in April, which is an increase of 5.8 percentage points from the March reading of 61.1 percent. An index above 51 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board's Industrial Production figures. This is the 11th consecutive month the Production Index has registered above 50 percent.
The 15 industries reporting growth in production during the month of April — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Furniture & Related Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. There were no industries reporting a decrease in production in April.
|
Production |
% Better |
% Same |
% Worse |
Net |
Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2010 | 49 | 44 | 7 | +42 | 66.9 |
| Mar 2010 | 36 | 53 | 11 | +25 | 61.1 |
| Feb 2010 | 32 | 54 | 14 | +18 | 58.4 |
| Jan 2010 | 38 | 51 | 11 | +27 | 66.2 |
ISM's Employment Index registered 58.5 percent in April, which is 3.4 percentage points higher than the 55.1 percent reported in March. This is the fifth consecutive month of growth in manufacturing employment. An Employment Index above 49.8 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.
Twelve of the 18 manufacturing industries reported growth in employment in April in the following order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Paper Products; Furniture & Related Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The only industry reporting a decrease in employment during April is Plastics & Rubber Products.
|
Employment |
% Higher |
% Same |
% Lower |
Net |
Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2010 | 26 | 68 | 6 | +20 | 58.5 |
| Mar 2010 | 21 | 69 | 10 | +11 | 55.1 |
| Feb 2010 | 22 | 68 | 10 | +12 | 56.1 |
| Jan 2010 | 15 | 73 | 12 | +3 | 53.3 |
The delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was slower in April as the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 61.3 percent, which is 3.6 percentage points lower than the 64.9 percent registered in March. This is the 11th consecutive month the Supplier Deliveries Index has been above 50 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.
The 12 industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in April — listed in order — are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Chemical Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Primary Metals; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; Paper Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Computer & Electronic Products. There were no industry reports of faster deliveries.
|
Supplier Deliveries |
% Slower |
% Same |
% Faster |
Net |
Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2010 | 22 | 76 | 2 | +20 | 61.3 |
| Mar 2010 | 27 | 73 | 0 | +27 | 64.9 |
| Feb 2010 | 23 | 72 | 5 | +18 | 61.1 |
| Jan 2010 | 18 | 79 | 3 | +15 | 60.1 |
Manufacturers' inventories contracted in April following one month of growth as the Inventories Index registered 49.4 percent. The index is 5.9 percentage points lower than the March reading of 55.3 percent. An Inventories Index greater than 42.6 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis' (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).
The five industries reporting higher inventories in April are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Fabricated Metal Products. The five industries that reported decreases in inventories in April are: Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Nonmetallic Mineral Products.
|
Inventories |
% Higher |
% Same |
% Lower |
Net |
Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2010 | 20 | 61 | 19 | +1 | 49.4 |
| Mar 2010 | 26 | 61 | 13 | +13 | 55.3 |
| Feb 2010 | 17 | 64 | 19 | -2 | 47.3 |
| Jan 2010 | 16 | 60 | 24 | -8 | 46.5 |
The ISM Customers' Inventories Index registered 33 percent in April, 6 percentage points lower than in March when the index registered 39 percent, and the 13th consecutive month the Customers' Inventories Index has been below 50 percent. The index indicates that respondents believe their customers' inventories are too low at this time.
There were no industry reports of customers' inventories being too high during April. The 14 industries reporting customers' inventories as too low during April — listed in order — are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Wood Products; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Printing & Related Support Activities; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Primary Metals; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Computer & Electronic Products.
|
Customers' Inventories |
% Reporting |
%Too High |
%About Right |
%Too Low |
Net |
Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2010 | 72 | 9 | 48 | 43 | -34 | 33.0 |
| Mar 2010 | 75 | 11 | 56 | 33 | -22 | 39.0 |
| Feb 2010 | 71 | 7 | 60 | 33 | -26 | 37.0 |
| Jan 2010 | 73 | 4 | 56 | 40 | -36 | 32.0 |
The ISM Prices Index registered 78 percent in April, 3 percentage points higher than the 75 percent reported in March. This is the 10th consecutive month in which the Prices Index has registered above 50 percent. While 60 percent of respondents reported paying higher prices and 4 percent reported paying lower prices, 36 percent of supply executives reported paying the same prices as in March. A Prices Index above 49.3 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Index of Manufacturers Prices.
The 16 industries reporting paying increased prices during the month of April — listed in order — are: Wood Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Furniture & Related Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Paper Products; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Primary Metals; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. There were no industry reports of paying lower prices on average during April.
|
Prices |
% Higher |
% Same |
% Lower |
Net |
Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2010 | 60 | 36 | 4 | +56 | 78.0 |
| Mar 2010 | 53 | 44 | 3 | +50 | 75.0 |
| Feb 2010 | 39 | 56 | 5 | +34 | 67.0 |
| Jan 2010 | 44 | 52 | 4 | +40 | 70.0 |
ISM's Backlog of Orders Index registered 57.5 percent in April, 0.5 percentage point lower than the 58 percent reported in March. Of the 82 percent of respondents who reported their backlog of orders, 31 percent reported greater backlogs, 16 percent reported smaller backlogs, and 53 percent reported no change from March.
The 10 industries reporting increased order backlogs in April — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Paper Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Plastics & Rubber Products; Furniture & Related Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The three industries that reported decreases in order backlogs during April are: Machinery; Chemical Products; and Primary Metals.
|
Backlog of Orders |
% Reporting |
% Greater |
% Same |
% Less |
Net |
Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2010 | 82 | 31 | 53 | 16 | +15 | 57.5 |
| Mar 2010 | 84 | 30 | 56 | 14 | +16 | 58.0 |
| Feb 2010 | 86 | 33 | 56 | 11 | +22 | 61.0 |
| Jan 2010 | 84 | 26 | 60 | 14 | +12 | 56.0 |
ISM's New Export Orders Index registered 61 percent in April, 0.5 percentage point lower than the 61.5 percent reported in March. This is the 10th consecutive month of growth in the New Export Orders Index.
The 13 industries reporting growth in new export orders in April — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Computer & Electronic Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Machinery. There were no industry reports of a decrease in export orders during April.
|
New Export Orders |
% Reporting |
% Higher |
% Same |
% Lower |
Net |
Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2010 | 79 | 23 | 76 | 1 | +22 | 61.0 |
| Mar 2010 | 75 | 30 | 63 | 7 | +23 | 61.5 |
| Feb 2010 | 79 | 17 | 79 | 4 | +13 | 56.5 |
| Jan 2010 | 78 | 19 | 79 | 2 | +17 | 58.5 |
Imports of materials by manufacturers expanded in April as the Imports Index registered 58 percent, 1 percentage point higher than the 57 percent reported in March. This is the eighth consecutive month of growth in imports.
The nine industries reporting growth in imports during the month of April — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Chemical Products. The only industry reporting a decrease in imports during April is Computer & Electronic Products.
|
Imports |
% Reporting |
% Higher |
% Same |
% Lower |
Net |
Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2010 | 83 | 23 | 70 | 7 | +16 | 58.0 |
| Mar 2010 | 79 | 21 | 72 | 7 | +14 | 57.0 |
| Feb 2010 | 81 | 18 | 76 | 6 | +12 | 56.0 |
| Jan 2010 | 81 | 20 | 73 | 7 | +13 | 56.5 |
* The Backlog of Orders, Prices, Customers' Inventories, Imports and New Export Orders Indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.
Average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures decreased nine days to 107 days. Average lead time for Production Materials increased 5 days to 50 days. Average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies decreased one day to 22 days.
| Percent Reporting | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Capital Expenditures |
Hand- to- Mouth |
30 Days |
60 Days |
90 Days |
6 Months |
1 Year+ |
Average Days |
| Apr 2010 | 32 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 26 | 10 | 107 |
| Mar 2010 | 26 | 9 | 13 | 14 | 25 | 13 | 116 |
| Feb 2010 | 27 | 6 | 13 | 15 | 26 | 13 | 118 |
| Jan 2010 | 28 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 28 | 13 | 118 |
|
Production Materials |
Hand- to- Mouth |
30 Days |
60 Days |
90 Days |
6 Months |
1 Year+ |
Average Days |
| Apr 2010 | 20 | 48 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 50 |
| Mar 2010 | 26 | 40 | 20 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 45 |
| Feb 2010 | 22 | 42 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 50 |
| Jan 2010 | 24 | 36 | 23 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 53 |
|
MRO Supplies |
Hand- to- Mouth |
30 Days |
60 Days |
90 Days |
6 Months |
1 Year+ |
Average Days |
| Apr 2010 | 50 | 38 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 22 |
| Mar 2010 | 49 | 39 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 23 |
| Feb 2010 | 48 | 36 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 24 |
| Jan 2010 | 54 | 34 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 21 |
The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply managers based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. Use of the data is in the public domain and should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.
The Manufacturing ISM Report On Business is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Manufacturing Business Survey Committee is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry's contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). Manufacturing Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing (products such as medical equipment and supplies, jewelry, sporting goods, toys and office supplies).
Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers' Inventories, Employment and Prices), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction (higher, better and slower for Supplier Deliveries) and the negative economic direction (lower, worse and faster for Supplier Deliveries), and the diffusion index. Responses are raw data and are never changed. The diffusion index includes the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive).
The resulting single index number for those meeting the criteria for seasonal adjustments (PMI, New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories) is then seasonally adjusted to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-moveable holidays. All seasonal adjustment factors are supplied by the U.S. Department of Commerce and are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The PMI is a composite index based on the seasonally adjusted diffusion indexes for five of the indicators with equal weights: New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories.
Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. A PMI reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. A PMI in excess of 42 percent, over a period of time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 42 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 42 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline. With some of the indicators within this report, ISM has indicated the departure point between expansion and decline of comparable government series, as determined by regression analysis.
Responses to Buying Policy reflect the percent reporting the current month's lead time, the approximate weighted number of days ahead for which commitments are made for Production Materials; Capital Expenditures; and Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies, expressed as hand-to-mouth (five days), 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, six months (180 days), a year or more (360 days), and the weighted average number of days. These responses are raw data, never revised, and not seasonally adjusted since there is no significant seasonal pattern.
The Manufacturing ISM Report On Business is published monthly by the Institute for Supply Management. The Institute for Supply Management, established in 1915, is the largest supply management organization in the world as well as one of the most respected. ISM's mission is to lead the supply management profession through its standards of excellence, research, promotional activities and education. This report has been issued by the association since 1931, except for a four-year interruption during World War II.
The next Manufacturing ISM Report On Business, featuring the May 2010 data, will be released on Tuesday, June 1.