The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.3 percent in January, following a 1.2 percent gain in December and a 1.1 percent rise in November.
Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board: "The U.S. LEI has risen steadily for nearly a year, led by an improvement in financial markets and a manufacturing upturn. Consumer expectations and housing permits have also contributed to these gains over this period, but to a lesser extent – especially in recent months. Current economic conditions, as measured by The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI), have also improved modestly since July 2009, helped by strengthening industrial production, despite continued weakness in employment."
Adds Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: "The cumulative change in the U.S. LEI over the past six months has been a strong 9.8 percent, annualized. This signals continued economic recovery at least through the spring."
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. rose 0.2 percent in January, following no change in December, and a 0.3 percent increase in November. The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index (LAG) declined 0.1 percent in January, following a 0.3 percent decline in December, and a 0.7 percent decline in November.
Leading indicators: Five of the 10 indicators that make up The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. increased in January. The positive contributors – beginning with the largest positive contributor – were the interest rate spread, the index of supplier deliveries (vendor performance), average weekly manufacturing hours, stock prices and the index of consumer expectations. The negative contributors – beginning with the largest negative contributor – were real money supply, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), building permits, and manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods. Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials held steady in January.
The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. now stands at 107.4 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 1.2 percent in December and increased 1.1 percent in November. During the six-month span through January, the leading economic index increased 4.8 percent, with eight out of 10 components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 80 percent).
Coincident indicators: Three of the four indicators that make up The Conference Board CEI for the U.S. increased in January. The positive contributors to the index – beginning with the largest positive contributor – were industrial production, personal income less transfer payments and manufacturing and trade sales. The negative contributor was employees on nonagricultural payrolls.
The Conference Board CEI for the U.S. now stands at 100.1 (2004=100). This index remained unchanged in December and increased 0.3 percent in November. During the six-month period through January, the coincident economic index increased 0.6 percent, with three out of four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75.0 percent).
Lagging indicators: The Conference Board LAG for the U.S. stands at 108.0 (2004=100) in January, with two of the seven components advancing. The positive contributors to the index – beginning with the largest positive contributor – were change in labor cost per unit of output and change in CPI for services. The negative contributors – beginning with the largest negative contributor – were commercial and industrial loans outstanding, average duration of unemployment (inverted), ratio of consumer installment credit to personal income, and ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales. The average prime rate charged by banks held steady in January. Based on revised data, the lagging economic index decreased 0.3 percent in December and decreased 0.7 percent in November.