Real gross domestic product – the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States – increased at an annual rate of 5.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009, (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released January 29 by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.2 percent.
The bureau emphasized that the fourth-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency. The "second" estimate for the fourth quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on February 26, 2010.
The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from private inventory investment, exports and personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
The acceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected an acceleration in private inventory investment, a deceleration in imports, and an upturn in non-residential fixed investment that were partly offset by decelerations in federal government spending and in PCE.
Motor vehicle output added 0.61 percentage point to the fourth-quarter change in real GDP after adding 1.45 percentage points to the third-quarter change. Final sales of computers subtracted 0.03 percentage point from the fourth-quarter change in real GDP after subtracting 0.08 percentage point from the third-quarter change.
The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, increased 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent in the third. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.2 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 0.3 percent in the third.
Real personal consumption expenditures increased 2.0 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 2.8 percent in the third. Durable goods decreased 0.9 percent, in contrast to an increase of 20.4 percent. Non-durable goods increased 4.3 percent, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent. Services increased 1.7 percent, compared with an increase of 0.8 percent.
Real non-residential fixed investment increased 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 5.9 percent in the third. Non-residential structures decreased 15.4 percent, compared with a decrease of 18.4 percent. Equipment and software increased 13.3 percent, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent. Real residential fixed investment increased 5.7 percent, compared with an increase of 18.9 percent.
Real exports of goods and services increased 18.1 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 17.8 percent in the third. Real imports of goods and services increased 10.5 percent, compared with an increase of 21.3 percent.
Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 8.0 percent in the third. National defense decreased 3.5 percent, in contrast to an increase of 8.4 percent. Non-defense increased 8.1 percent, compared with an increase of 7.0 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 0.3 percent, compared with a decrease of 0.6 percent.
The change in real private inventories added 3.39 percentage points to the fourth-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.69 percentage point to the third-quarter change. Private businesses decreased inventories $33.5 billion in the fourth quarter, following decreases of $139.2 billion in the third quarter and $160.2 billion in the second.
Real final sales of domestic product – GDP less change in private inventories – increased 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent in the third.
Gross domestic purchases
Real gross domestic purchases – purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced – increased 5.1 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 3.0 percent in the third.
Disposition of personal income
Current-dollar personal income increased $119.2 billion (4.0 percent) in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $35.1 billion (1.2 percent) in the third.
Personal current taxes decreased $11.7 billion in the fourth quarter, in contrast to an increase of $3.5 billion in the third.
Disposable personal income increased $130.8 billion (4.8 percent) in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $31.6 billion (1.2 percent) in the third. Real disposable personal income increased 2.1 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 1.4 percent.
Personal outlays increased $109.0 billion (4.2 percent) in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $132.3 billion (5.2 percent) in the third. Personal saving – disposable personal income less personal outlays – was $516.9 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with $495.0 billion in the third. The personal saving rate – saving as a percentage of disposable personal income – was 4.6 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with 4.5 percent in the third. For a comparison of personal saving in BEA’s national income and product accounts with personal saving in the Federal Reserve Board’s flow of funds accounts and data on changes in net worth, go to http://www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/Nipa-Frb.asp.
Current-dollar GDP
Current-dollar GDP – the market value of the nation's output of goods and services – increased 6.4 percent, or $221.3 billion, in the fourth quarter to a level of $14,463.4 billion. In the third quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 2.6 percent, or $90.9 billion.
2009 GDP
Real GDP decreased 2.4 percent in 2009 (that is, from the 2008 annual level to the 2009 annual level), in contrast to an increase of 0.4 percent in 2008.
The decrease in real GDP in 2009 primarily reflected negative contributions from non-residential fixed investment, exports, private inventory investment, residential fixed investment and personal consumption expenditures (PCE), that were partly offset by positive contributions from federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.
The downturn in real GDP primarily reflected downturns in non-residential fixed investment and in exports and a larger decrease in private inventory investment that were partly offset by a larger decrease in imports and a smaller decrease in residential fixed investment.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.1 percent in 2009, compared with an increase of 3.2 percent in 2008.
Current-dollar GDP decreased 1.3 percent, or $182.7 billion, in 2009. Current-dollar GDP increased 2.6 percent, or $363.8 billion, in 2008.
During 2009 (that is, measured from the fourth quarter of 2008 to the fourth quarter 2009), real GDP increased 0.1 percent. Real GDP decreased 1.9 percent during 2008. The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.6 percent during 2009, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent during 2008.