Metalformers pessimistic about economy

Metalforming companies are anticipating a downturn in near-term business conditions, according to the recently released Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report. Conducted monthly, the report is an economic indicator for manufacturing, sampling 177 metalforming companies in the United States and Canada.

When asked what they expect the trend in general economic activity to be over the next three months, only 25 percent of participants reported that business conditions will improve (down from 42 percent in August), 52 percent believe conditions will remain the same (up from 48 percent the previous month) and 23 percent anticipate economic activity will decrease (compared to 10 percent last month). These views may be a reflection of the economic uncertainty in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.

Metalforming companies also expect incoming orders to decline over the next three months. Forty-one percent of respondents expect an increase in orders (compared to 53 percent in August), 39 percent predict no change (up from 36 percent the previous month) and 20 percent forecast a decrease in orders (up from 11 percent in August).

However, participants reported that current average daily shipping levels are above those of three months ago. Thirty-six percent of companies reported that shipping levels are up (compared to 25 percent last month), 42 percent reported no change (the same percentage reported in August) and 22 percent reported that September shipping levels are below levels of three months ago (compared to 33 percent in August).

On another positive note, the number of metalforming companies with a portion of their workforce on short time or layoff dropped for the second consecutive month. Just 14 percent of companies reported workers on short time or layoff in September, compared to 17 percent in August and 19 percent in July.

The monthly Business Conditions Report has been conducted by PMA since 1979. Full report results are available at www.metalforming.com.

Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) is the full-service trade association representing the $41 billion metalforming industry of North America — the industry that creates precision metal products using stamping, fabricating and other value-added processes. Its nearly 1,200 member companies include metal stampers, fabricators, spinners, slide formers and roll formers as well as suppliers of equipment, materials and services to the industry. Members are located in 30 countries, with the majority found in North America.