ISM: U.S. manufacturing expanded in April; PMI rises 0.8 points to 60.4

Economic activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector expanded in April for the ninth consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 12th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the Institute for Supply Management's latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business.

The report was issued May 3 by Norbert J. Ore, CPSM, C.P.M., chair of the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.

"The manufacturing sector grew for the ninth consecutive month during April," said Ore. "The rate of growth as indicated by the PMI is the fastest since June 2004 when the index hit 60.5 percent. Manufacturers continue to see extraordinary strength in new orders, as the New Orders Index has averaged 61.6 percent for the past 10 months. The signs for employment in the sector continue to improve as the Employment Index registered its fifth consecutive month of growth. Overall, the recovery in manufacturing continues quite strong, and the signs are positive for continued growth."

PERFORMANCE BY INDUSTRY

Seventeen of the 18 manufacturing industries are reporting growth in April, in the following order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Wood Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Primary Metals; Furniture & Related Products; Chemical Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Paper Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. No industries are reporting contraction in April.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING ...

• "Finances continue to be tight, and we are decreasing safety stock levels to reduce inventory." (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)
• "Business conditions continue to improve. Actual sales exceeded budget for the third straight month." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
• "Demand from automotive manufacturers has continued to improve month over month." (Fabricated Metal Products)
• "We are finally seeing a turnaround." (Primary Metals)
• "Upward price pressure still evident." (Chemical Products)

 

MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE APRIL 2010
Index	Series Index April	Series Index March	Percentage Point Change	Direction	Rate of Change	Trend* (Months)
PMI	60.4	59.6	+0.8	Growing	Faster	9
New Orders	65.7	61.5	+4.2	Growing	Faster	10
Production	66.9	61.1	+5.8	Growing	Faster	11
Employment	58.5	55.1	+3.4	Growing	Faster	5
Supplier Deliveries	61.3	64.9	-3.6	Slowing	Slower	11
Inventories	49.4	55.3	-5.9	Contracting	From Growing	1
Customers' Inventories	33.0	39.0	-6.0	Too Low	Faster	13
Prices	78.0	75.0	+3.0	Increasing	Faster	10
Backlog of Orders	57.5	58.0	-0.5	Growing	Slower	4
Exports	61.0	61.5	-0.5	Growing	Slower	10
Imports	58.0	57.0	+1.0	Growing	Faster	8
OVERALL ECONOMY				Growing	Faster	12
Manufacturing Sector				Growing	Faster	9

*Number of months moving in current direction.

 

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE and IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price

Aluminum (10); Aluminum Products; Brass Products; Caustic Soda (2); Copper (2); Copper Products (2); Corrugated Containers (2); Ferro Alloys; Plastics (4); Plastic Resins (4); Polyethylene (3); Polypropylene (5); Polypropylene Resins; Pulp; Sodium Hydroxide; Stainless Steel; Stainless Steel Products; Steel (10); Steel Products (4); and Sulfuric Acid (2).

Commodities Down in Price

Natural Gas is the only commodity reported down in price.

Commodities in Short Supply

No commodities are reported in short supply.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

 

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APRIL 2010 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES

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Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)

Manufacturing continued to grow in April with the rate of growth accelerating as the PMI registered 60.4 percent, an increase of 0.8 percentage point when compared to March's reading of 59.6 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A PMI in excess of 42 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the PMI indicates growth for the 12th consecutive month in the overall economy, as well as expansion in the manufacturing sector for the ninth consecutive month. Ore stated, "The past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the average PMI for January through April (58.7 percent) corresponds to a 5.6 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP). In addition, if the PMI for April is annualized, it corresponds to a 6.2 percent increase in real GDP annually."

THE LAST 12 MONTHS

 

Month	PMI		Month	PMI
Apr 2010	60.4		Oct 2009	55.2
Mar 2010	59.6		Sep 2009	52.4
Feb 2010	56.5		Aug 2009	52.8
Jan 2010	58.4		Jul 2009	49.1
Dec 2009	54.9		Jun 2009	45.3
Nov 2009	53.7		May 2009	43.2
Average for 12 months – 53.5 High – 60.4 Low – 43.2

 

New Orders

ISM's New Orders Index registered 65.7 percent in April, 4.2 percentage points higher than the 61.5 percent registered in March. This is the 10th consecutive month of growth in the New Orders Index. A New Orders Index above 50.2 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau's series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).

The 17 industries reporting growth in new orders in April — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Paper Products; Machinery; Furniture & Related Products; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Printing & Related Support Activities; Computer & Electronic Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. There were no industries reporting a decrease in new orders in April.

 

New Orders	% Better	% Same	% Worse	Net	Index
Apr 2010	52	40	8	+44	65.7
Mar 2010	41	48	11	+30	61.5
Feb 2010	36	49	15	+21	59.5
Jan 2010	41	43	16	+25	65.9

 

Production

ISM's Production Index registered 66.9 percent in April, which is an increase of 5.8 percentage points from the March reading of 61.1 percent. An index above 51 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board's Industrial Production figures. This is the 11th consecutive month the Production Index has registered above 50 percent.

The 15 industries reporting growth in production during the month of April — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Furniture & Related Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. There were no industries reporting a decrease in production in April.

 

Production	% Better	% Same	% Worse	Net	Index
Apr 2010	49	44	7	+42	66.9
Mar 2010	36	53	11	+25	61.1
Feb 2010	32	54	14	+18	58.4
Jan 2010	38	51	11	+27	66.2

 

Employment

ISM's Employment Index registered 58.5 percent in April, which is 3.4 percentage points higher than the 55.1 percent reported in March. This is the fifth consecutive month of growth in manufacturing employment. An Employment Index above 49.8 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.

Twelve of the 18 manufacturing industries reported growth in employment in April in the following order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Paper Products; Furniture & Related Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The only industry reporting a decrease in employment during April is Plastics & Rubber Products.

 

Employment	% Higher	% Same	% Lower	Net	Index
Apr 2010	26	68	6	+20	58.5
Mar 2010	21	69	10	+11	55.1
Feb 2010	22	68	10	+12	56.1
Jan 2010	15	73	12	+3	53.3

 

Supplier Deliveries

The delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was slower in April as the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 61.3 percent, which is 3.6 percentage points lower than the 64.9 percent registered in March. This is the 11th consecutive month the Supplier Deliveries Index has been above 50 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

The 12 industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in April — listed in order — are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Chemical Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Primary Metals; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; Paper Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Computer & Electronic Products. There were no industry reports of faster deliveries.

 

Supplier Deliveries	% Slower	% Same	% Faster	Net	Index
Apr 2010	22	76	2	+20	61.3
Mar 2010	27	73	0	+27	64.9
Feb 2010	23	72	5	+18	61.1
Jan 2010	18	79	3	+15	60.1

 

Inventories

Manufacturers' inventories contracted in April following one month of growth as the Inventories Index registered 49.4 percent. The index is 5.9 percentage points lower than the March reading of 55.3 percent. An Inventories Index greater than 42.6 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis' (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).

The five industries reporting higher inventories in April are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Fabricated Metal Products. The five industries that reported decreases in inventories in April are: Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Nonmetallic Mineral Products.

 

Inventories	% Higher	% Same	% Lower	Net	Index
Apr 2010	20	61	19	+1	49.4
Mar 2010	26	61	13	+13	55.3
Feb 2010	17	64	19	-2	47.3
Jan 2010	16	60	24	-8	46.5

 

Customers' Inventories*

The ISM Customers' Inventories Index registered 33 percent in April, 6 percentage points lower than in March when the index registered 39 percent, and the 13th consecutive month the Customers' Inventories Index has been below 50 percent. The index indicates that respondents believe their customers' inventories are too low at this time.

There were no industry reports of customers' inventories being too high during April. The 14 industries reporting customers' inventories as too low during April — listed in order — are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Wood Products; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Printing & Related Support Activities; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Primary Metals; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Computer & Electronic Products.

 

Customers' Inventories	% Reporting	%Too High	%About Right	%Too Low	Net	Index
Apr 2010	72	9	48	43	-34	33.0
Mar 2010	75	11	56	33	-22	39.0
Feb 2010	71	7	60	33	-26	37.0
Jan 2010	73	4	56	40	-36	32.0

 

Prices*

The ISM Prices Index registered 78 percent in April, 3 percentage points higher than the 75 percent reported in March. This is the 10th consecutive month in which the Prices Index has registered above 50 percent. While 60 percent of respondents reported paying higher prices and 4 percent reported paying lower prices, 36 percent of supply executives reported paying the same prices as in March. A Prices Index above 49.3 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Index of Manufacturers Prices.

The 16 industries reporting paying increased prices during the month of April — listed in order — are: Wood Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Furniture & Related Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Paper Products; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Primary Metals; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. There were no industry reports of paying lower prices on average during April.

 

Prices	% Higher	% Same	% Lower	Net	Index
Apr 2010	60	36	4	+56	78.0
Mar 2010	53	44	3	+50	75.0
Feb 2010	39	56	5	+34	67.0
Jan 2010	44	52	4	+40	70.0

 

Backlog of Orders*

ISM's Backlog of Orders Index registered 57.5 percent in April, 0.5 percentage point lower than the 58 percent reported in March. Of the 82 percent of respondents who reported their backlog of orders, 31 percent reported greater backlogs, 16 percent reported smaller backlogs, and 53 percent reported no change from March.

The 10 industries reporting increased order backlogs in April — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Paper Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Plastics & Rubber Products; Furniture & Related Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The three industries that reported decreases in order backlogs during April are: Machinery; Chemical Products; and Primary Metals.

 

Backlog of Orders	% Reporting	% Greater	% Same	% Less	Net	Index
Apr 2010	82	31	53	16	+15	57.5
Mar 2010	84	30	56	14	+16	58.0
Feb 2010	86	33	56	11	+22	61.0
Jan 2010	84	26	60	14	+12	56.0

 

New Export Orders*

ISM's New Export Orders Index registered 61 percent in April, 0.5 percentage point lower than the 61.5 percent reported in March. This is the 10th consecutive month of growth in the New Export Orders Index.

The 13 industries reporting growth in new export orders in April — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Computer & Electronic Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Machinery. There were no industry reports of a decrease in export orders during April.

 

New Export Orders	% Reporting	% Higher	% Same	% Lower	Net	Index
Apr 2010	79	23	76	1	+22	61.0
Mar 2010	75	30	63	7	+23	61.5
Feb 2010	79	17	79	4	+13	56.5
Jan 2010	78	19	79	2	+17	58.5

 

Imports*

Imports of materials by manufacturers expanded in April as the Imports Index registered 58 percent, 1 percentage point higher than the 57 percent reported in March. This is the eighth consecutive month of growth in imports.

The nine industries reporting growth in imports during the month of April — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Chemical Products. The only industry reporting a decrease in imports during April is Computer & Electronic Products.

 

Imports	% Reporting	% Higher	% Same	% Lower	Net	Index
Apr 2010	83	23	70	7	+16	58.0
Mar 2010	79	21	72	7	+14	57.0
Feb 2010	81	18	76	6	+12	56.0
Jan 2010	81	20	73	7	+13	56.5

* The Backlog of Orders, Prices, Customers' Inventories, Imports and New Export Orders Indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.

 

Buying Policy

Average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures decreased nine days to 107 days. Average lead time for Production Materials increased 5 days to 50 days. Average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies decreased one day to 22 days.

 

Percent Reporting
Capital Expenditures	Hand- to- Mouth	30 Days	60 Days	90 Days	6 Months	1 Year+	Average Days
Apr 2010	32	5	10	17	26	10	107
Mar 2010	26	9	13	14	25	13	116
Feb 2010	27	6	13	15	26	13	118
Jan 2010	28	8	12	11	28	13	118
Production Materials	Hand- to- Mouth	30 Days	60 Days	90 Days	6 Months	1 Year+	Average Days
Apr 2010	20	48	18	8	3	3	50
Mar 2010	26	40	20	10	2	2	45
Feb 2010	22	42	21	8	5	2	50
Jan 2010	24	36	23	10	4	3	53
MRO Supplies	Hand- to- Mouth	30 Days	60 Days	90 Days	6 Months	1 Year+	Average Days
Apr 2010	50	38	8	4	0	0	22
Mar 2010	49	39	8	4	0	0	23
Feb 2010	48	36	13	3	0	0	24
Jan 2010	54	34	8	4	0	0	21

 

About this Report

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply managers based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. Use of the data is in the public domain and should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation

The Manufacturing ISM Report On Business is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Manufacturing Business Survey Committee is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry's contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). Manufacturing Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing (products such as medical equipment and supplies, jewelry, sporting goods, toys and office supplies).

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers' Inventories, Employment and Prices), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction (higher, better and slower for Supplier Deliveries) and the negative economic direction (lower, worse and faster for Supplier Deliveries), and the diffusion index. Responses are raw data and are never changed. The diffusion index includes the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive).

The resulting single index number for those meeting the criteria for seasonal adjustments (PMI, New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories) is then seasonally adjusted to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-moveable holidays. All seasonal adjustment factors are supplied by the U.S. Department of Commerce and are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The PMI is a composite index based on the seasonally adjusted diffusion indexes for five of the indicators with equal weights: New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories.

Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. A PMI reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. A PMI in excess of 42 percent, over a period of time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 42 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 42 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline. With some of the indicators within this report, ISM has indicated the departure point between expansion and decline of comparable government series, as determined by regression analysis.

Responses to Buying Policy reflect the percent reporting the current month's lead time, the approximate weighted number of days ahead for which commitments are made for Production Materials; Capital Expenditures; and Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies, expressed as hand-to-mouth (five days), 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, six months (180 days), a year or more (360 days), and the weighted average number of days. These responses are raw data, never revised, and not seasonally adjusted since there is no significant seasonal pattern.

The Manufacturing ISM Report On Business is published monthly by the Institute for Supply Management. The Institute for Supply Management, established in 1915, is the largest supply management organization in the world as well as one of the most respected. ISM's mission is to lead the supply management profession through its standards of excellence, research, promotional activities and education. This report has been issued by the association since 1931, except for a four-year interruption during World War II.

The next Manufacturing ISM Report On Business, featuring the May 2010 data, will be released on Tuesday, June 1.